Evolution, Morpheus

On the horizon, innovations are emerging that promise to disrupt our world, taking us back to a time when Man attempted to summon and control demons and restless spirits.

Leopold Aschenbrenner is a young researcher of German origin who was recently part of the “Superalignment team” at OpenAI.

The team was founded by the company to address the risks associated with the future creation of an Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), a model of artificial intelligence significantly more “intelligent” than even the best humans.

Leopold wrote a brief essay on the topic called “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” in which he describes what he believes will happen in the next 4-5 years. I found it very interesting and think it lends itself well to some of our reflections.

From GPT to AGI… to Superintelligence

The author argues that, considering the linear progress of artificial intelligence over the last three years, it is possible to assume that we might reach an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2027, and then quickly, and almost exponentially, move towards superintelligence (ASI).

In the field of AI, an artificial general intelligence (AGI) is defined as a model capable of performing any “intellectual” task in a versatile manner, having comprehension abilities equal to humans, and being easily adaptable to new situations. Current AI assistants, like GPT-4, are not yet considered AGI.

Artificial superintelligence (ASI), on the other hand, is a step further: it is not only more intelligent than the most intelligent humans but also reaches levels of autonomy and self-innovation unimaginable with previous models. ASI is essentially the beginning of the singularity—the moment when technological advancement will no longer be predictable by humans.

Many would say that Leopold is overly enthusiastic and overestimates the capabilities of research in the field of artificial intelligence. Some even speak of a new “AI winter” after GPT-4.

However, he claims that in the next 2-3 years, there will be a race, especially by the United States government, to build new data centers and trillion-dollar clusters, in a competition with China reminiscent of the space race of the last century with Russia.